胚胎发育动力学参数对囊胚移植周期妊娠结局的影响及预测模型建立

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Abstract Objective To study the influence of embryo development dynamics parameters on pregnancy outcome in blastocyst transfer cycle,and to establish a prediction model of pregnancy outcome.Methods A total of 704 cycles of blastocyst transfer cultured in Time-lapse incubator from July 2017 to July 2019 in the Reproductive and Genetic Medicine Center of Dalian Municipal Women and Children′s Medical Center were collected,among of them 453 cycles for the factors affecting pregnancy outcome and the transfer of two blastocysts with singleton pregnancy were excluded,and the remaining 371 embryos of 251 cycles were selected as the research objects.According to the outcome of pregnancy,the patients were divided into two groups: non pregnancy group (group A,N=115 cycles,n=169 embryos) and clinical pregnancy group (group B,N=136 cycles,n=202 embryos).The relationship between the embryo dynamics indexes of t2,t3,t4,t5,cc2,cc3,s2,s3,tM,tSB,tB and pregnancy outcome was analyzed.Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the embryo development dynamics parameters that affected the clinical pregnancy outcome of the blastocyst transfer cycle,and the clinical pregnancy outcome prediction model was established and verified.Results The results of Logistic regression showed that t5,t8,s3,tM,tSB and tB had predictive value for pregnancy outcome.The prediction equation of pregnancy rate in blastocyst transfer cycle was: P=1/(1+y),y=exp{(-3.803+0.007×t5-0.004×t8-0.042×s3+0.023×tM+0.005×tSB+0.043×tB)}.The ROC curve was drawn based on the predicted outcome probability calculated by the research data and the actual outcome data,and the area under the curve was 0.702 (95%CI:0.679-0.791,P=0.047).Conclusion The risk factors of embryo dynamics in blastocyst transfer cycle include t5,t8,s3,tM,tSB and tB.ROC curve test shows that the clinical pregnancy outcome prediction model based on the above risk factors has certain predictive value.

Key words： Blastocyst transfer Clinical pregnancy Embryo dynamics Logistic regression analysis Predictive model

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	SHI Yan-bin
	ZHANG Wan-ni
	SHAO Xiao-guang▲

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SHI Yan-bin,ZHANG Wan-ni,SHAO Xiao-guang▲. Influence of embryo development dynamics parameters on pregnancy outcome in blastocyst transfer cycle and establishment of prediction model[J]. 中国当代医药, 2021, 28(7): 8-11.

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http://dangdaiyiyao.com/EN/ OR http://dangdaiyiyao.com/EN/Y2021/V28/I7/8

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